卫星海洋环境监测预警全国重点实验室为增进学术交流，促进实验室对外开放，组织系列“海星系列学术讲座”，邀请国内外知名专家与青年科研人员分享前沿科学动态，讨论最新学术成果，欢迎大家踊跃参加。

召集人：王云涛 研究员

会议时间：9月9日(周二) 10:00-11:30

会议地点：1号楼1210会议室

报告人：王小华 教授（澳大利亚新南威尔士大学）

报告题目：Modelling the Climate-Change-Induced Major Flood Levels in the Georges River Estuary, Australia

报告人简介：王小华（Wang Xiao Hua）毕业于中国海洋大学，获澳大利亚詹姆斯库克大学海洋学博士学位，澳大利亚新南威尔士大学科学学院终身教授，国际海洋模拟研讨会（IWMO）国际指导委员会联合主席，Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science和Limnology and Oceanography: Methods 等期刊副主编，主要从事近海海洋观测、卫星遥感和数值模拟、沉积物输运动力学以及人类活动和气候变化影响下的近海动力问题等研究。王小华教授与我室合作多年，发表了200余篇学术论文，包括著名海洋学SCI期刊论文、书籍章节和四本专著。与卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室合作发表论文10篇左右。

报告摘要：Estuaries are influenced by both oceanic and catchment forcings are expected to be subject to more frequent and intense coastal storms and heavy rainfall on the southeast Australia coast due to climate change. General circulation models and dynamic downscaling indicate that the 20 year average recurrence interval (ARI) maximum daily rainfall would increase in the order of 25% in this region under the high emission future by 2090. Such increases in extreme rainfall are predicted to cause an average increase of 55% in the equivalent ARI flood discharge into the Georges River, which features one of the largest floodplains and urbanized areas in Australia. This study quantifies consequent changes in extreme estuary water levels using the hydrodynamic model RMA-2. Recorded rainfall and water level data from an observed 50 year ARI flood event were used for model calibrations. Forced by the 20-year ARI historical and high emission future scenario flood conditions, RMA-2 predicts the future peak water levels will rise 1m in the upper estuary in the absence of changes in oceanic forcing. Sea level in the eastern Australia is predicted to rise by 0.66m under a high emission scenario. When combined with a predicted 20 year ARI barometric rise of 0.26m sea level rise, future flood peak water level are predicted to rise 1.3m in the upper estuary and 0.9m in the lower estuary at 20 year ARI. Consequently, under climate change, catchment floods dominate changes in peak water level in the upper estuary while oceanic processes principally determine changes in the lower estuary. The storm wind speeds are shown to have negligible impact on extreme water levels. Climate change storm impacts are predicted to have significant impacts on inundation of densely-populated regions, especially on Australian east coast.