Climate Atlas view on extreme sea level changes in future along the Danish coasts


发布日期:2023-07-14 阅读:273

报告人:苏健 研究员(丹麦气象研究所)

邀请人:周锋 研究员

时    间:7月17日 10:00-11:30

地    点:线下会议地点:1号楼1304会议室;线上腾讯会议:233-468-368


召集人:周锋 研究员





报告人:苏健 研究员(丹麦气象研究所,Danish Meteorological Institute)

报告题目:Climate Atlas view on extreme sea level changes in future along the Danish coasts


苏健,丹麦气象局研究员,博士毕业于中国海洋大学。主要从事国家气候服务项目,是国家气候服务项目 Klimaatlas 的海洋方面项目的负责人,在区域海洋动力学模型,区域气候耦合模型,海洋生态系统模型和综合观测,卫星和模型数据分析方面拥有丰富的经验。科研早期的研究主要集中于河口和大陆架海域的中尺度海洋过程,海洋环流以及海洋与大气的相互作用。近10年转向区域气候模型和气候灾害风险评估。


The regional projected changes in winds combined with sea level rise and land rise challenge our present knowledge of extreme storm surges in the Danish coastal area. In particular, the source of the uncertainty is difficult to trace back in the long climate simulations. In ‘Climate Atlas’, a new national climate service initiative, the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) will investigate changes in the extreme statistics of sea-level in the 21st century. The study will make use of multi- scenarios, multi-models and multi-parameters approach to focus on the uncertainty of the projected change in extreme statistics of sea level.

RCP4.5 and 8.5 are the two IPCC scenarios to be used in this study. We take the atmospheric forcing from 24 members of CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) RCM (Regional Climate Models) simulations. We will select some RCM members as the forcing to drive a high resolution storm surge model for the North Sea and Baltic Sea area. In parallel, operational model at DMI will be evaluated against other ocean models in the Baltic Sea area in the hindcast period. This way we are able to trace back the source of the uncertainties in the simulations. Of course, the uncertainty estimates will be combined with a thorough evaluation of global sea-level changes and their imprint on the North Western European Shelf Seas.

The evaluation of the uncertainties will be taken into account in the municipal planning about climate variability and change, impacts, and response options. An authoritative source of quality climate information is important for the Danish Municipalities to ensure coherent and timely adaptation measures. Main priorities of our geographical area are extreme precipitation and storm surges.

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